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The ECB’s September Consumer Expectations Survey found that median expectations for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% from 3.0% in August, while longer-term expectations were unchanged. Respondents also expected weaker economic growth and higher unemployment, alongside faster income, spending and home-price growth.
The European Central Bank reported that consumers’ median expectation for inflation over the next 12 months rose to 3.1% in September, from 3.0% in August, while their outlook for economic growth weakened and expected unemployment increased. The monthly survey offers the ECB a view of household expectations across the euro area, but its results are survey responses, not official forecasts or a statement of the central bank’s policy position.
Median perceived inflation over the previous 12 months rose to 3.6% from 3.5% in August. Expectations for inflation three years ahead remained at 2.9%, and expectations five years ahead stayed at 2.5%. The ECB said uncertainty around inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased slightly and remained above the level recorded before the start of the conflict in the Middle East. The release did not quantify that uncertainty in the summary.
Respondents expected nominal income growth of 1.1% over the next 12 months, up from 1.0% in August. Expected nominal spending growth rose to 3.7% from 3.6%, while reported spending growth over the previous 12 months increased to 5.3% from 5.2%. These figures describe consumers’ reported or expected changes in nominal amounts; the release does not present them as inflation-adjusted growth.
The outlook for the economy and jobs moved in a weaker direction. Expected economic growth over the coming year fell to -1.5% from -1.2%, while the expected unemployment rate in 12 months rose to 11.3% from 11.0%. By contrast, expected home-price growth increased to 3.5% from 3.4%. Expected mortgage rates in 12 months remained at 4.9%, unchanged from July, the comparison month specified by the ECB.
Households See Mixed Economic Pressures
The results present a mixed picture of the pressures consumers expect to face. Slightly higher near-term inflation expectations, alongside faster anticipated spending growth, matter to households planning budgets and to policymakers monitoring price-setting and demand. At the same time, the survey’s weaker growth outlook and higher expected unemployment point to concern about economic conditions, rather than a uniformly improving household outlook.
Distributional differences stand out in the ECB’s figures. People in the lowest income quintile reported higher average inflation perceptions and expectations than those in the highest quintile. They also expected lower income growth and higher unemployment and mortgage rates. Such gaps can matter because the same price changes and borrowing costs may weigh differently on households with different incomes. The survey records expectations, however; it does not establish how households will behave or what will happen to prices, jobs or rates.
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How the Monthly Survey Works
The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey is conducted online each month among around 19,000 adults in 11 euro area countries: Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Greece, Spain, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Austria, Portugal and Finland. The ECB says the results support policy analysis and complement other data sources. Fieldwork for this release took place from 27 August to 28 September 2026, so responses were collected across parts of both calendar months.
Unless otherwise stated, the release’s statistics refer to a 2% winsorised mean, a method that limits the influence of extreme observations. The inflation figures are described by the ECB as medians. The bank also cautions that survey results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff. The underlying microdata and methodological information are available through the ECB’s survey resources and Data Portal.
““Consumers continued to expect the future unemployment rate to be only slightly higher than the perceived current unemployment rate (10.6%), suggesting a broadly stable labour market outlook.””
— European Central Bank
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Limits of the September Findings
The survey measures what respondents perceived and expected during the fieldwork period; it does not confirm future inflation, growth, unemployment, home prices or mortgage rates. The release does not explain what caused each month-to-month change, and it does not establish whether respondents’ expectations will be borne out. It also reports that uncertainty about near-term inflation expectations increased slightly, but does not give a numerical measure of that change in the press release.
The figures are euro-area aggregates and can conceal differences between countries and households. The ECB reports income-quintile patterns for several measures, but the summary does not provide the full country-level detail. Nor does it quantify the reported net increase in households saying credit access had tightened, or those expecting tighter credit conditions. Those results indicate the direction of responses relative to easing, not the size of the change.
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October Results Due in November
The ECB scheduled publication of the October 2026 survey results for 27 November 2026. That release will provide the next monthly comparison on consumer expectations. The September data, country-level aggregates and methodological material are available through the ECB’s website and Data Portal; readers can use those sources to examine details not included in the press-release summary.
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Key Questions
When did the ECB publish the September survey results?
The ECB published the results on 23 October 2026. Survey fieldwork ran from 27 August to 28 September.What did consumers expect inflation to be?
Median expected inflation over the next 12 months was 3.1%, up from 3.0% in August. Expectations were unchanged at 2.9% three years ahead and 2.5% five years ahead.What did respondents expect for growth and unemployment?
Expected economic growth over the next 12 months fell to -1.5% from -1.2%. The expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead rose to 11.3% from 11.0%.Does the survey state the ECB’s official economic outlook?
No. It reports consumer perceptions and expectations. The ECB says the results do not represent the views of its decision-making bodies or staff.When are the next results scheduled?
The ECB said the October 2026 Consumer Expectations Survey results are scheduled for 27 November 2026.Source: primary
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